The 10 things to do before your baseball draft

In order to be seriously competitive, homework is essential.  I have tried a number of different ways to stay a step ahead, but these 10 strategies are all that is needed for most leagues. I assure you that you will not have to spend hours a day to keep up.  About 30 minutes will do, so cut your online porn down to make up the time.  I hate the owners in the draft that come completely unprepared and then tell everyone that they are "too busy" to do any research.  Don't be that guy.  Most of us waste hours watching TV, so take your laptop to the livingroom when you are watching  whatever show you don't tell anyone that you watch for fear of ridicule (we all have one, so don't bother pretending.  Mine was American Idol for two years, now everyone knows.  Recently, I have been watching Royal Pains on USA.).  At least if someone catches you watching "that show" you can always say it was just on in the background while you did your research.

One last comment before you even start the research. Know your scoring system inside and out.  For beginners, this is the very first thing to know.  Some leagues have a minimum innings pitched.  See how many you have to have.  If it is a head-to-head league with a high number of innings, great starters are a bit more valuable in order to fulfill the requirements.  If there is not a minimum set, then why waste high picks on starters and just load up on dominant closers and setup guys in order to dominate ERA, K/9, and WHIP.  All advice is just that, advice, and your scoring system will determine the rankings in the end.
1.  Make a list of the best players for the first two rounds- This is a list that will change, sometimes daily for me.  But on draft day have it completely done.  There are a few rules for my lists and I would recommend them to you as well.  The first is that I never worry about positions for my list.  If you are in a twelve team league, then put the 24 guys you would like to have the most.  Position scarcity is one of the most overrated used terms in fantasy sports.   Most leagues have two spots for almost every position so having both Pujols and Ryan Howard is not a problem. I will expand more on this in later.  Next, don't be the Mets signing Jason Bay and pay for a career year.  Consistency is the key to the first two rounds.  Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez is a fantastic player with five tool talent, but he has put a year and a half together.  I have seen him in recent drafts go as high as fourth, leaving Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera on the board.  That is too much risk for me in the first round.  Remember when Paul Abbot went 17-4 with the 2001 Mariners? Nobody else does either.  The first two rounds are essential for getting consistent help every week from players that have done it before. Five tool talent like Gonzalez are great, but I will take a consistent four tool star first.

2.  Never draft a Pitcher or Catcher in the first two rounds- Look at these  players stats from last year:

Tim Lincecum-    16-10, ERA 3.43, 231 K's
Jon Lester-          19-9, ERA 3.25, 225 K's
Yovani Gallardo   14-7, ERA 3.84, 200 K's

Lincecum went in the first two rounds in almost every draft last year.  I am willing to bet the teams that took him did not win much.  The top 30 pitchers are all dominant starters and most MLB teams have two legit aces in the rotation.  That is 60 pitchers that will make a fantasy rotation dominant.  The third and fourth starters on most MLB teams can have predictably good outings about half the time.  All you need to do to dominate in most leagues is get 5 of the top 60 guys.  After the five are drafted on your team then you can start to draft a combination of solid veterans and young guys with upside.  The waiverwire can be used to stream if there are no options later in the draft.  If you are not familiar with streaming, it is basically picking guys off the waiver wire that are marginal pitchers against horrible teams.  I am going to write an entire article on using the waiver wire when the season begins, but for now know that if your roster requires 5 starters, 5 relief pitchers, and 3 bench options, you only need 6 solid starting pitchers.  Do not draft one before the 5th round.  Consistent hitting is hard to come by so load up early.  The hard fast rule of drafting a catcher is to be the last one to pick one.  Joe Mauer is not an advantage to winning.  Besides batting average, he is essentially worthless.  Let someone else take him while you get Jon Lester or Ichiro, who go around the same time in early expert drafts.
3. Position scarcity is less important than you have been told- Every magazine and website I have seen  has told me to draft less talented players at positions that have very little talent instead of the stud at a position with an abundance.  This year I am looking at the middle infield (SS,2B) as particularly thin of star power.  By my count I have only four players in the middle infield (MI) position that numbers qualify as 1st or 2nd rounders.  Then there are maybe a dozen solid players that  will be drafted before round 10.  When most leagues have to start 3 MI everyday, that means that at least 36 will be in play each week.  So only half of the MI positions in your league will be solid plays.   Having the best SS or C is great, but you have to pay way too much.  If the 4th best SS is Derek Jeter and the 4th best 1B is Adrian Gonzalez, would you give up Gonzalez straight up for Jeter?  If so, I have a league I want you to be in with me.  Average draft spot for the fourth SS overall is 39 while Adrian Gonzalez goes 30 on average.  Yet Gonzalez hit for a better average, three times more HRs and 40+ RBI.  If you take the 12th ranked SS and Gonzalez, you will destroy Jeter and the 12th ranked 1B.   The only time to worry about position scarcity is when two players numbers are similar and it is your pick.  If you have a choice between Cano and Votto in the first round, then take the 2nd baseman.  That is the only time to consider it.  If you miss out on the top MI, don't worry.  Take one that dominates a single category or sleepers to fill those spots, then juggle the waiver wire the rest of the year.  MI is a great place to find one category players like steals.  Over 40 MIs stole 10+ bases last year and most of the AAA talent coming up this year are speed options.  Everyone has some marginal players on their fantasy roster, but you can limit it by drafting the best talent for the first 10 rounds and worry about position filling in the end. 

4. Saves are cheap...right?   I could easily have written an article on bad advice from the fantasy world that would include this along with position scarcity.  Unfortunately I learned the hard way that this is probably the worst of the bad advice.  I was in a very competitive draft with a guy I worked with at the time named Brent.  I have known him for years and because he looks like a co-star in "Revenge of the Nerds", I underestimate him in everything.  Not only is he a really smart guy making tons of money, he also dominates fantasy drafts almost every year.  In 2006, I played my first of many leagues to come with Brent and noticed something I had never seen before.  He was drafting the best of the closers from late in the 4th round and continued that trend until he had the three he could play every week.  I assumed he had not gotten the memo that closers are cheap and took my three closers in the late rounds.  After getting my ass handed to me that year by him in the championship, I realized his genius.  Most leagues use pitchers' ERA, Wins, Saves, K's, and WHIP as categories for scoring.  But with all of the new stats being used in real baseball being applied in fantasy, such as K's per 9, Quality Starts, and Holds, having the best starter an almost useless advantage now.  The best bullpen pitchers are put in a position to succeed.  MLB managers bring lefty pitchers to face lefty batters because the numbers support that the batter is at a severe disadvantage.  This brings me to my point.  Brent knew that his relief pitchers would not get him the Wins he would need, but in ERA, WHIP, Saves, Holds, and K/9 he dominated us.  He then drafted starting pitchers that were average, but on great teams, to get the inflated win totals.  This is the kind of moves made that win leagues .  He also knew that the rest of us starved for saves would employ the closers most likely to lose their jobs or, even  worse, not lose their jobs and get saves with an ERA that our great Starting Pitchers couldn't fix.  I don't advocate Brent's strategy because closers are a volatile bunch, but having 3 of the top 15  can dominate at least 3 categories.  Relief pitching should not be completely ignored and with some leagues can be a better option than high priced starters.

5. Punting should be avoided- Everyone has had to "punt" a stat in Fantasy Baseball even if you have not heard this term before.  This is the idea that a team is drafted with mostly Starting Pitching instead of closers to dominate K's and W's, but punt holds and saves.  Depending on the scoring system of your league, this could be a terrible idea.  Starters have a much higher WHIP and ERA than closers on average, therefore you are giving not just saves up but also destroying two other categories in the process.  This correlation between stats is everywhere in baseball.  Steals and runs usually go together and punting steals can hurt both.  Don't assume giving up one category is not going to adversely affect others.  Draft well rounded teams and you will stay competitive all year.  If you draft Adam Dunn for his 40 HR's then make sure to draft a few guys that hit over .300 in order to counter his .240 average.  Fantasy Baseball is won not by the team that has the most Wins or HRs, but by the team that is ranked in the top 5 in all the scoring categories.

6. Horde HR leaders that hit .270 or better- I recently read a fantasy publication that stated a case could be made that Jacoby Ellsbury is the number one outfielder if healthy.  Even if he is healthy the whole year, and that is a big if, he in no way is the most valuable OF even in a year he steals 70.  Power hitters don't just give you the long ball, they also drive in the most RBI and score as many runs as the best leadoff hitters.  You know who lead MLB in runs last year?  Albert Pujols and in second was Mark Teixeira, both hit from the 3 hole and stole a combined 14 bases (all by Pujols).  The key is to draft HR heavy teams that can hit for average and you will win most weeks.  Forget the idea that the leadoff batters have the best average, too.  8 of the top 10 players that lead in batting average in 2010 stole less than 10 bases.  When you draft in the first two rounds it is essential to find players that hit HRs in bunches and a decent average.  There will  be very few players on my top 25 that I predict to hit less than 20 round trippers.

7. Your starting team should be filled with Veterans that have done it before- One of the biggest mistakes I see in drafts is falling in love with sleepers or rookies.  All of us who play want to be the one's to say we predicted the surprises of 2010 like Carlos Gonzalez or Delmon Young.  That ability would amount to winning every year.  In the real world, people whose job is to predict the next big thing in baseball claim about %50 right from year to year.  The fact is that most sleepers don't pan out and even the best rookies numbers are weak by the standard of their relative position.  Last year's rookie class was one of the best in years and other than Buster Posey and Nefili Feliz, none of them were in the top 10 at their position.  On that alone, no rookie should be taken in the first 100 picks.  Sleepers are just as risky. Ask the manager last year who drafted Scott Sizemore, Gordan Beckham, Matt Weiters, Alcides Escobar, or Julian Borbon.  Sleepers pan out about 20% at best.  Fill scarcity positions with sleepers late and cut ties after a month if they can't produce.  Only 3 or 4 players on your roster should be a rookie or a sleeper.

8. When looking at players to rebound or break out check K/9 and OBP- I can not stress how important a factor are for finding talent at the end of the draft.  OBP or on base percentage can tell you about how unlucky a player was the year before.  If a player hits .30 points less than the year before, but his OBP is roughly the same, then is was simply bad luck. OBP shows patience at the plate and eventually translates to better numbers.  K/9 or strikeouts per 9 innings is a great indicator of how good a pitcher will be.  If a young pitcher struggles with his ERA early but his K/9 are high, it generally means that his stuff is good, but control is an issue.  Only 9 players had 200 strikeouts last year making K's one of the hardest stats to acquire.  If a prospect comes to the big leagues with the ability to make a run at 200, he will have a high K/9.  If he has a low K/9 then I worry that the league will catch up to him and eventually make the adjustments to beat him. 

9. Check all of the spring training box scores- This is a great way to see who is winning position battles for each team and young guys dominating at the major league level.  Sleeper lists need to be made with guys that you have followed during spring training.  Pay special attention to the teams that nobody cares about such as the Royals and Pirates.  Teams like these have useful players nobody has ever heard of and can fill even the most scarce spots on your roster.  Don't worry about veterans in spring training (unless they are declining every year).  They have little to prove and won't play enough to make it count. 

10.  Rank by position, have a "this is the last guy I can live with" line, and sleepers for each position-   Along with the list of the first two rounds, break each position down from at least 1-30 for each infield position and the top 100 for outfield and each pitching spot.  Mark each player with their strengths and weaknesses such as "strike out pitcher" or "high ERA".  This is very important and needs to be done for each individual league.  Once that is done, designate a player that is the last possible person at each position that is usable.  Not all of the people before that line will be stars, but all of them need to at least be consistent.  This will help you in the late rounds of the draft in determining if it is time to reach for a position of need or take the best available talent left.  Sleepers need to be determined for each position as well so that at the end of the draft when your brain is mush you don't take David DeJesus just because you can't think of anyone else.

This is just the basics for spring.  There are methods that some experts use on draft day that vary from taking all hitters and spending the last of the draft on whatever is left of pitching to loading up on  pitchers while only dominating speed and average offensively.  These methods can work if you are willing to spend everyday pouring over free agents.  My advice is easier for a casual player, but I believe is also more consistently competitive every year.  If you spend the next couple of weeks just amassing a list of your players by position and learning the scoring system, then you are way ahead of the game.  I will write a list of my top players at each position this week and my tiers within each position to help you along.  I will also give you a draft strategy  of how I would draft, along with other theories to use.  Ultimately this is your team, so draft a team that will interest you all year.  If you have any question, leave them at the end of this article and I will answer them within 24 hours.  Good luck and get your homework done.

 I have been a sports analyst for over 5 years on the radio for the Johnny Ballgame Show (mon-fri at 3pm, johnnyballgameshow.com).  Johnny and I have grown up in the era in which sports became what it is today...a media spectacle.  There are any number of blogs, network stations, and writers who are dieing to be the next ESPN or Deadspin, so Johnny has had the luxury of choosing any number of outstanding guest. This is great because he can say here is so and so from the LA Times or draftgeek.com and the title alone adds some credibility.  So what if no one reads the paper anymore or has ever heard of your website, most people hear that and immediately think "professional".  So here I am trying to be a professional. I am not that complicated of a guy, so don't worry if you think I am going to go George Plimpton on you with my large vocabulary or 1000 page book.  I will keep it pretty simple, focusing on the "Big Three" (pro basketball, baseball, football) and fantasy sports.  The problem I have had with doing this all along is that I am not sure what I add to the big world of bloggers.  I am not in the press box or live in a place with a lot of pro sports, so what is it that separates me from anyone else?  Hell if I know, but I do know that I have  quirks that make my family crazy and keep me on Johnny's show even without insider knowledge.  Take the tour of what goes inside my head.
I have no short term memory.  I don't mean that I have to go all Memento on myself and write down my kid's names on my forehead . I mean I can't find my keys, cellphones, and wallet on a daily basis.  This is not a joke.  Every single day.  I spend 15 minutes every morning dissecting the previous day to think of the  place I may have put them.   I have two phones, so I use one phone to find the other on most days.  But what if I was in a meeting  the night before?  I will turn the ringers off on both in order to focus and forget to turn them back on.  See where this is going.  Now when I wake up, I can't find them.  I use my wife's phone to call either one and get nothing. If I went anywhere the night before, they could easily be at that location.  They could be in my car, my work car, or the house.  I have no idea.  I end up going to work without either of them .   But,  if someone asked what the highest batting average in the league or the top 10 rushers of all time, I will remember.  I have this rainman ability to remember not just the numbers, but the era it was done in and the shape of the sport at the time.  I can tell you  team leaders in just about every category along with the busts in their draft history.  This is great for what I do. JB Bury once wrote "history is a science, no more, no less".  This is true in sports.  You want to understand why the Cincinnati Bengals are constantly bad and the Steelers are not? Look at the history of the franchises, how they are run, the free agents they pick up, and so on.  It will give you a clearer picture of why the Steelers are in the championship every year and the Bengals are on the clock with a top five pick again.  Just like science, if you take the history of a franchise and use the facts accumulated, a logical conclusion can be made.  The Steelers will pick an interior offensive lineman and he will overpreform into an allpro.  The Bengals select Akili Smith. Knowing all of this gives me a perspective that I feel most don't have, but also makes the people who have to wait on me to find my keys want to kill me.

This idiot savant talent really comes handy in fantasy sports.  I can recite the third string running back on every NFL team.  Sadly, I also know the starters in the UFL!  This goes for all of the three sports also.  Want to know the situational lefty for the Marlins, no problem.  What about the fourth guard in Oklahoma City.  Got that one too.  I pour over stats and trends three months before the season starts in order to be ready for the draft.  Sadly, my only real talent in life does not pay much, but I have squeezed as much money out of the last few years as I could.  In the last 11 years I have played in at least 3 money leagues a year.  Each league has varied in price from a $25 family league to the ultra competitive World Championship of Fantasy Football.  I have only had one year in which I was paying instead of getting paid (Dominick Davis screwed that whole year for me).  I have won a championship in every competitive league I have played in except the WCOFF, where of 700 teams we placed in the top 60 and won $2500.  I am not the greatest player in the world, but due to my useless ability, I can make you competitive every year.  I will write updates, players to pick up, and who to avoid for all the big 3.  I am not 100%, but I hit on enough yearly to keep me in it and I hope it works for you.  If not, please let me know what an idiot I am too.  I may like those the best.

Since we are in baseball season, I am going to start there as well.  Good luck and feel free to leave any comments or questions about fantasy at the bottom.  I will answer all questions in a timely manner.